Will the Maldives disappear?

Will the Maldives disappear?

Author: Tomás Vera Ziccardi.

Located in the heart of the Indian Ocean, the Republic of Maldives is a sovereign nation unfamiliar to most of the people who inhabit this world. However, in recent years this nation has been the window to one of the problems that could end up seriously affecting virtually the entire world population. What makes Maldives an extremely important nation for the XXI Century? How it is possible that an independent state made​up of no more than half a million people becomes the prelude to future disasters of global proportions? To understand these issues it is first necessary to make a description of the nation, at the same time that we elaborate an analysis that addresses the problems which have recently affected Maldives. This will allow us to understand the reason why analysts have repeatedly asked if there are legitimate possibilities that this Asian nation disappears. Keeping track of this shaft question, we shall seek to respond the possibility that the Maldives disappears, and also an explanation as to why it has gone so far as to suggest the demise of a nation.

The nearest countries are Sri Lanka and India. The Indian Ocean completely surrounds the Maldives. Being an archipelago of more than 1,900 islands, from which less than a quarter of them are inhabited. Its capital, Male, has about 100,000 inhabitants, over 25 % of all the Maldivian population. The rest is distributed in more than 200 islands, with some having a population of between 1,000 and 5,000. A total of 400,000 inhabitants make up the national population of the Maldives. Despite being a recognized tourist destination, especially among American and European tourists (now also among Chinese ones), few know that the Maldives is the country with the lowest altitude in the world. This has led to the categorization of 'the lowest country in the world'. Maldives lacks 'natural' mountains, not reaching more than three meters, the highest peak in the nation. We say 'natural' because as we shall see there are other mountains in the Maldives, which far from having brought benefits to the topographical features of the nation, have worsened its situation in social and natural terms. Keep in mind that 80 % of the territory does not exceed five meters in height. Virtually the entire territory is at sea level. This makes the Maldives, a nation that has less than 1,000 km2, an extremely vulnerable nation to global warming, since a slight increase with regards to water levels in the Indian Ocean can infringe the entire national territory.

From a paradisiac destination to an apocalyptic scenario, which are the causes that lay under the environmental vulnerability of Maldives?

We have previously mentioned an extremely relevant aspect for this Asian nation. Tourism is Maldives main source of income. This economic activity accounts for over 40 % of national GDP. According to figures provided by the Ministry of Tourism of Maldives, more than 500,000 tourists visit the nation each year. This allows us to observe that the annual number of tourists exceeds the total Maldivian population. Not only with tourists come remittances in foreign currency, also come serious problems. This allows us to reformulate the current paradigm which holds that the Maldives will go ahead with tourism. Is tourism the solution or the real underlying problem?

To Maldivian citizens access to education is difficult. The top educational institutions such as universities are only for a few. The inability to move from remote islands to the capital makes it difficult for people in rural areas to have access to quality education. On the other hand, the low level of infrastructure precludes the construction of schools and universities in different islands, further worsening structural problems that Maldives has in education. Structural problems bring to light the high distance between the small elite that rule the nation from Male and the rest of the population. No wonder that the Maldives has one of the highest Gini coefficients in the world. We should also notice that its Human Development Index level is medium. All this means that over the year’s people have digested the concepts of the elite which argue that tourism is a huge benefit for the nation. Maldivian citizens have become accustomed to accept tourism, including all the evil that follows it. Tourism serves as the 'opium of the people', and instead of being addressed as the problem, it is introduced as the solution. Of course, the industry related to tourism has a strong link with the political power and the military.

After tourism fishing accounts for the activity that generates the higher income in Maldives. Its territorial position is strategic for fishing, generating annual exports to nations like China, where recently the demand for fish has increased. In recent years the exploitation of marine resources has led to a crisis in the seabed around the islands. It is feared that increased fishing without strict regulation leads to the destruction of the nation's ecosystem, generating natural consequences as well as economic ones.

There are two areas where we should deepen. On one side we should focus on Maldives energy supplies. Due to its geographical position, the Maldives must import fuel from other nations. The Asian nation imports more than one quarter of its GDP on diesel. The costs of illuminating the nation plus hospitals and schools energy supply are extremely high. Energy dependence clearly increases the spiraling problems affecting Maldives.

Furthermore it should be noted that Maldives has no water reserves. This leads to import millions of tons of water, not only for consumption of its inhabitants, but also for the huge number of tourists visiting the country annually. Sewage and water networks do not cover more than 40 % of the populated territory, being the capital the only exception where the system is moderately acceptable. Meanwhile in remote islands such infrastructure is non-existent.

Maldives insular condition isolates the nation when it comes to getting rid of garbage and waste. Keep in mind that big tourism chains and activities that emerge from them generate over 60% of waste in Maldives. Several islands have seen how 'artificial' mountains of garbage have increased in recent years. Ironically these 'artificial' mountains are the only ones in Maldives. Successive governments have tended to adopt a policy of relocation of large landfills to remote islands, which does not solve the waste problem but makes it worse for the future.

Maldives is located in the so called Coral Reefs. Unlike other insular nations, its foundations are supported on these structures, rather than on volcanic stone or fertile soil. Nowadays the world has seen how global warming has advanced at a high speed, although, in the political agenda, little has been done in order to stop it. The reason why we want to introduce the case of Maldives is because it serves as a window to the future, a case that could show the panorama in which we would find us for not taking serious measures against global warming. At the same time the ineffectiveness of appropriate policies show irreversible damage in geographical terms, as the case of the Maldives poses serious risks to national integrity. In recent years, global warming has not only exponentially increased the volume of water in the oceans, aggravating the situation of nations situated at sea level as the Maldives, but also it has increased the level of acidity in the oceans, destroying stocks of coral on which an enormous amount of archipelagos worldwide maintain themselves. For the Maldives, this means an even more serious problem than for other nations.

Maldives has a serious problems regarding waste disposal. In a nation where half a million tourist arrive every year, pollution is intended to increase, affecting national environment.

Due to global warming effects, water levels have increased, jeopardizing the status of nations living on the sea level. Going even further, climate change increased the annual rainfall in the Indian Ocean region, which generates not only higher levels of annual rainfall, but also more rain, storms and tsunamis per year. Forward-looking statements speak of Maldives possible situation, which would lose about 23% of its territory by the year 2100. Of course this would happen if water levels in the seas and oceans around the world continue increasing. We could not only witness the disappearance of a significant percentage of islands but also the inability to relocate thousands of inhabitants.

Unlike the situation in other nations, in Maldives, due to its topographical structure, a slight rise in sea levels translates into serious floods, as it was experienced in recent years. Maldives not only lacks the budget to counter these issues, it is also unable to implement a similar plan to the ones British had for the Thames in order to prevent rising tides resulting in floods. Setting concrete walls around nearly 2,000 islands is virtually impossible, even more for a nation whose infrastructure is extremely precarious. On the other hand, it is not certain where rising sea levels will hit, thus protecting certain islands and others not seems not be the right choice. At the same time we could point out that the protection of the islands near the capital would lead to an even more difficult demographic situation. The residents of remote islands may have fear of the lack of protection and hence they would immediately seek for refuge in the capital. In recent years there has been an increase on the intra-migratory flow to the capital, leaving several islands uninhabited. Many of these islands have a population of less than 1,000 inhabitants. On the other hand, the same could happen in the capital; hence it is not an easy task to predict where the disaster shall take place.

Despite the higher level of vulnerability due to its geographical condition and the exponential risk to experience future disasters due to global warming, Maldives should reconsider the extent of human responsibility in the problems it traverses. We previously analyzed tourism and the problems it creates. The piles of trash worsen the health situation in the islands of Maldives. Furthermore, the seas predation due to the fishing boom can complicate even further the environmental situation. The level of ocean acidity, partly due to international pollution, but also by irresponsible fishing, along with the tons of waste dumped into the sea that border the nation, is another issue that harms the Maldives and also the future of its inhabitants. Why measures are not taken in order to limit tourism, the waste issue, fishing & hostelry industry and the energetic dependence? This is clearly due to economic interests. Maldives was ruled for decades by an authoritarian regime, disguised as a pseudo democracy. The judicial and legislative branches of power have a strong link with the economic power that controls tourism and fishing. Despite democratic progress since the '2000s, groups of power used to perpetrate lobby practices have redoubled their efforts in order to eliminate environmental issues from the political & electoral debate. This added to the low level of formation that the average Maldivian citizen has and the restrictions imposed over access to valuable information regarding climate change, has shifted the focus of attention from voters and citizens. Maldivians seem not so interested in the environmental problems its nation is facing. Not only there is direct culpability and responsibility from the population but also from the elite that rule the country, which in defense of their economic interests and monopolist industries has sedated the people on an issue that is considerably serious. For the past decades something has been extremely clear: the Maldivian establishment is determined to achieve discredit of the problems generated by the environment.

Contrary to popular belief that a man cannot change things by himself, Mohamed Nasheed has worked most of his entire life not only to change the environmental situation of his nation, but also to fight concentrated power groups that prevent a change for the better of the Maldivian people.

Nasheed completed his formation on maritime studies in the United Kingdom. After that he returned to his nation, where he was arrested for attacking, as a journalist, the government. In the early '90s Nasheed began his political career looking forward to impose the environmental theme at the core of social debate. During the years of political turmoil in the '2000s he held public office, where his image grew enormously, especially due to the great popularity generated by his innovative initiatives. Unfortunately because of them he would end up in prison. Nasheed was for years one of the most hated political leaders by the military that held control of the Maldives for nearly two decades.

Due to the difficult socio-political situation in Maldives, Nasheed had to face exile in Sri Lanka, where along with other relevant Maldivian figures they would found the Maldivian Democratic Party. After years of de facto governments, elected in fraudulent elections, Nasheed managed to win the 2008 election with the support of more than half of the electorate. After 20 years of dictatorship, Nasheed became the first democratically elected president of Maldives. His policies represented the same political thought he had throughout his life, innovation and long-term projection were the norm during his years in office. In 2009 the President proposed to reverse the national energy matrix to a supply based on wind and solar energy. It is understandable that traditional groups of power quickly opposed to his government. In terms of foreign affairs the government sought to implement certain type of diplomacy where previously mentioned Maldivian problems became projected to the international sphere. Presidential diplomacy was at its height, as Nasheed himself took part of major international forums, the United Nations and had a considerable presence in regions of great relevance such as the European Union and the NAFTA.

We should note that his government not only developed policies that sought to limit the amount of waste in Maldives, it also intended to reformulate the energetic and water supply, both of vital importance for the Asian nation. This clearly affected the economic interests of the traditional power groups which for decades had articulated a system that favored the import of diesel and water, while they never addressed the environmental issue nor eliminated waste and rubbish pills. Nasheed himself sought support from a huge amount of nations around the world, several of which observed how during his tenure the environmental issue increased at an international scale. In conclusion, the Nasheed government not only harmed the interests of domestic sectors, it also affected external ones, by awakening the need for change in terms of environmental regulation, something that several nations seek to minimize or eliminate from the international agenda. No wonder that throughout his mandate Nasheed suffered constant destabilization and coup attempts. The media attacks plus military interference in political power and judicial impediments were significant variables that hindered the exercise of functions of the MDP.

President Mohamed Nasheed introduces his speech at the United Nations Plenary, where he endorsed the lack of policies in the international agenda directed to combat global warming.

Internationally recognized as one of the leading exponents in the fight against climate change, Nasheed thwarted his dream of changing the course of events not only in his own nation but also on the entire world. Despite having directed his policies towards all axes that create problems for Maldives, most of which we have described since the beginning of the article, the military, the economic elite, political groups, transnational economic power, main hostelry chains, corporations in charge of tourism in the Maldives, international consumers of maritime products that saw their interests affected by the legislation Nasheed created to preserve marine life, nations that sought to silence his voice thinking that this would  bury the issue of climate change and fuel exporters ended up organizing a coup against him. Mohamed Nasheed, who came to organize his first cabinet meeting underwater, seeking to raise awareness to the world about the future of Maldives if serious action was not taken against climate change, ended up renouncing forcibly due to social instability generated in the streets of Male.

In the picture you can appreciate the historical Underwater Cabinet Meeting, where the recently eleceted government intended to rise concern regarding climate change and its effects in Maldives.

The Maldivian case is nothing more and nothing less than the clear representation of what could happen to the rest of the world if consistent policies are not taken. Climate change does not take a break, it is unpredictable, being able of affecting anyone at any time. Maldives counts with an obvious geographical vulnerability against the effects arising from climate change, however, and as we have seen, the main problem seems to have human responsibility. Maldivian citizens, from fishermen in remote islands up to tourism business leaders have led to an even worse environmental situation. In recent decades the amount of waste has increased, furthermore this issue has not been properly addressed. As for inefficiently regulated fishing, when measures were implemented to limit the destruction of the natural habitat, the desire to extract more fish in order to satisfy the international demand, economic groups behind the fishing industry fiercely opposed, demonstrating their commitment to destroy and harm the environment. The same as with fishing, the nation's energy matrix has the support of the political elite, fuel importers and the judicial branch. These groups intend to prevent a modification of the energetic matrix, opposing against the implementation of a non polluting one. All this shows us the level of human responsibility, not nature one, that lies behind the Maldivian case. The immediate economic and commercial interests seem to outweigh concerns about working for a better future for upcoming generations. Not only from the scientific world dealing with climate change, pollution, disproportionate consumption of non renewable fuels, increasing the level of water in the oceans and the destruction of marine life, from the world of international politics, which is what we are interested in, a not so bright future for Maldives arises. The major problems are not only structural and require immediate action; they should be discussed at the national and international level. Future implications could end up making of the Maldives just a mere memory. Even worse, if serious steps are not taken to reverse the situation in the Asian nation, we could be facing the future that waits for all of us. Let us note that the case of Maldives is not an isolated one. The people of this nation located in the Indian Ocean live on planet earth, just like us. You must understand that there is no Plan B, because there is no Planet B. Climate change does not choose who to hit next. Maldives today, tomorrow it would be another nation. We must realize that not working for change in Maldives would also lead us to our future scenario, where the interests of the world's political elite and transnational power would silence the problems behind climate change, while damage will continue advancing, and even worse, they will be irreparable.

Various Maldivian politicians have suggested that it is still early to talk about the effects of climate change. It is precisely that kind of attitude that hinders the solution. The fact of you not being dead does not mean that you will not be. The symptoms are clear, Maldives has enormous possibilities to experience the disappearance of much of its territory, the loss of life due to floods & storms and the destruction of vital infrastructure for the nation (roads, schools, hospitals, airports, etc). Regarding the question 'Will the Maldives disappear?' Clearly, the scientific evidence suggests that the Asian nation may disappear. No wonder why in the past it has even been suggested from various political factions the possibility of buying territory to other nations, hence producing a massive national migration. If such decision takes place it would not only mean leaving behind the territory of Maldives, it would also mean leaving behind the hope on the fight against global warming. For us these kinds of issues are the ones that corroborate what is suggested from the scientific world. Yes, the Maldives may disappear in the future. A future that may be closer than what we expect. But natural causes should not be the unique concern, innate to the environmental problem, human ones should also be consider. Precisely these are the ones that worsen the vicious circle of problems which Maldives is experimenting and that maybe you could soon be experiencing.

                                                                                  Tomás Vera Ziccardi.

* This work is physical and intellectual property of Mr. Tomás Vera Ziccardi. The rights of this work are reserved to TVZC® by express request of the Author.