No Luck for Yingluck.
Author: Tomás Vera Ziccardi.
For most Thai citizens the May 7th Coup that threw out Ms. Yingluck Shinawatra from power was a predictable event. However, if most of them were asked in 2008 if a woman had possibilities of becoming the Prime Minister of Thailand most would have probably disclaimed it. Thai politics remain as a complex world, even for experts, hence explaining the causes of this month's coup would require an extensive analysis. Far from this goal, we are looking forward to understand the difficulties that former Thai PM Ms. Shinawatra, faced during her short experience as the head of state of the Kingdom of Thailand.
After former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was removed from power by a military coup in 2006, thai politics went through a period of profound crisis and instability. Thailand's major political party was banned, making Mr. Shinawatra's political machine collapse. The Thai Rak Thai became the People's Power Party (PPP), which eventually developed into the Pheu Thai Party, the political structure that took Yingluck to power. Nevertheless, back in 2006-2007 Yingluck was a business woman distant to Thai politics. Despite having an interesting background (wealthy family from Chiang Mai and a brother who was Thailand's most relevant political figure), Yingluck remained as an outsider. Her education in public policy and governance were applied for years to the world of business. Unfortunately for her, the political arena works under different rules. A leader needs to have the ability to negotiate with groups of power, confront political opposition and maintain equilibrium among Thai militars, right wing political parties, rural voters, media, regional leaders and national bureaucracry centralized in Bangkok. Apart from this, being a female leader made things much more complex for Yingluck.
While Thaksin (from exile) and his technocrats decided who was going to command the Pheu Thai Party, relevant political figures performed a fierce battle in order to regain power. Instability made things much more difficult, specially in the post Thaksin scenario. The top leadership of the moment decided that the best option in order to face the upcoming 2011 elections was to strenghten Yingluck Shinawatra, an extremely attractive figure and none other than Thaksin's sister; after all the PTP had political control of key regions, their strategy was to appoint someone close to Thaksin's circle but at the same time a seductive option in order to reduce opposition from the Thai establishment. This is how Yingluck Shinawatra quickly began a nonstop path to power. Luck seemed to be on her side.
Ms. Yingluck Shinawatra did not count with previous political experience. She never served for public administration nor hold a relevant political position. Despite this, she won the national elections of 2011 and became Thailand's first female Prime Minister. For the militars, who exerted political control of the nation, Yingluck was more a doubt than a certainty. Despite her promises to persuade national unity she seeked to give amnesty to political figures of the Shinawatra Administration, including her own brother. For bureaucrats, Yingluck was a week woman controlled from abroad by her prother. She lacked the skills to exercise power and at their eyes, Yingluck was a puppet of the Pheu Thai Party. For the opposition parties, Thaksin's sister was a necessary evil, they knew that in electoral terms the PTP controlled the most relevant regions and undoubtfuly would end up in power. The difference now was that for them it would be easier to negotiate with a weak woman not used to Thai politics, rather than with a political chief close to the Shinawatra Clan.
Ms. Yingluck Shinawatra had to govern Thailand during a period of severe instability. Her social background and political position further influenced her administration. Despite critical mistakes, another element should be taken into account: Yingluck lacked luck.
So far everybody knows the most relevant aspects of the 1,000 days of government from the Thaksin Administration (Part II). However, people might forget how difficult it was for Yingluck to govern during the past four years. Apart from political opposition, which forced her to call for early elections to the national parliament, social opposition increased in comparison to previous years. Since almost day one, protestors took to the streets in order to oppose to her government. Media also had an active role, giving information to the people which stated that Ms. Yingluck was preparing legislation in order to give amnesty to her brother and other relevant political leaders. Despite being elected with a majority, Ms. Shinawatra lost key regions, something that accentuated the social fracture. Having the electoral support from her beloved Chiang Mai, she now had to govern in a oppnent district, no other than mighty Bangkok. It is important to recall what most especialists claim: 'In Thailand governments are made in the countryside and unmade in Bangkok'. Having not previously worked in the parliament, she lacked experience regarding confrontation against the national establishment. Perhaps this inexperience, combined with other factors, explains why she had to make cabinet reshuffle in several occasions. Of course this was seen as a sign of weakness for the opposition.
Starting with the 2011 floods, Yingluck's government seemed to have lost luck, things had changed: governing Thailand was a much more difficult task than what she had thought. Despite natural disasters, her administration would have to go throught a hard moment, as political, media, social and economic opposition increased. Thailand's polarization made things even worse. The so called 'yellow shirts' took the streets of Bangkok on several occasions. For Yingluck, as her advisors had told her, this was just a momentary thing, but as time went by and protesters remained in the streets for more than four months, her indecision combined with lack of knowledge in order to respond to this crisis made things come to an end. Apart from the already mentioned social motives, economic ones also emerged as a core point of her administration. Yingluck's policies towards rice farmers made the financial and economic establishment from Bangkok launch a media campaign meant to destabilize her government. Having the obligation to pay back to most of the rural electors that took her to power, Ms. Shinawatra continued with the populist policies her brother initiated back in the '2000s. Certainly, this increased opposition in urban centres of power such as Bangkok. Perhaps another relevant issue we should be mention are the corrpution scandals that surrounded her government. Economic plans meant to reactivate Thailand's economy were overshadowed by the scandals of corruption regarding the so called 'rice subsidies'. As the state payed rural producers twice the market price of rice, parliament leaders and media pointed out at Yingluck accusing the government of paying at a higher rate in order to maintain electoral support in rural areas. Several investigations enclosed the Thaksin Administration in accordance to this issue. As it is clear, political instability increased, affecting her government.
From her unexpected irruption in national politics to her evident dismissal, Yingluck Shinawatra proved to be a paradigmatic figure in Thai politics. Being the sister of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra gave her the chance to command a political force that since 2001 introduced radical reforms in a nation where the elite has minutely created a system favorable to right wing political forces. On the other hand, Yingluck's policies, most related to populist ones, were seen as a threat to Bangkok's establishment. Some might argue that she had her days counted since day one, however she proved steadiness by governing for almost four years. Most aspects of her fall are explained by systemic features and also political mistakes of the PTP government. After all, political instability in Thailand has become a constant for the past two decades. Was Yingluck an inevitable victim of this unestable period? As seen in the street of Thailand, some will answer yes and others no. Noticeably, Yingluck Shinawatra faced fierce opposition, which applied to her experience in office made the female leader commit serious mistakes, either by omission or wrong decision. To sum up, endogenous and exogenous factors influenced her government. Nevertheless we might all agree that the judiciary coup lead this month proves that Yingluck lost the luck that once took her to power.
Tomás Vera Ziccardi.
* This work is physical and intellectual property of Mr. Tomás Vera Ziccardi. The rights of this work are reserved to TVZC® by express request of the Author.
Starting with the 2011 floods, Yingluck's government seemed to have lost luck, things had changed: governing Thailand was a much more difficult task than what she had thought. Despite natural disasters, her administration would have to go throught a hard moment, as political, media, social and economic opposition increased. Thailand's polarization made things even worse. The so called 'yellow shirts' took the streets of Bangkok on several occasions. For Yingluck, as her advisors had told her, this was just a momentary thing, but as time went by and protesters remained in the streets for more than four months, her indecision combined with lack of knowledge in order to respond to this crisis made things come to an end. Apart from the already mentioned social motives, economic ones also emerged as a core point of her administration. Yingluck's policies towards rice farmers made the financial and economic establishment from Bangkok launch a media campaign meant to destabilize her government. Having the obligation to pay back to most of the rural electors that took her to power, Ms. Shinawatra continued with the populist policies her brother initiated back in the '2000s. Certainly, this increased opposition in urban centres of power such as Bangkok. Perhaps another relevant issue we should be mention are the corrpution scandals that surrounded her government. Economic plans meant to reactivate Thailand's economy were overshadowed by the scandals of corruption regarding the so called 'rice subsidies'. As the state payed rural producers twice the market price of rice, parliament leaders and media pointed out at Yingluck accusing the government of paying at a higher rate in order to maintain electoral support in rural areas. Several investigations enclosed the Thaksin Administration in accordance to this issue. As it is clear, political instability increased, affecting her government.
From her unexpected irruption in national politics to her evident dismissal, Yingluck Shinawatra proved to be a paradigmatic figure in Thai politics. Being the sister of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra gave her the chance to command a political force that since 2001 introduced radical reforms in a nation where the elite has minutely created a system favorable to right wing political forces. On the other hand, Yingluck's policies, most related to populist ones, were seen as a threat to Bangkok's establishment. Some might argue that she had her days counted since day one, however she proved steadiness by governing for almost four years. Most aspects of her fall are explained by systemic features and also political mistakes of the PTP government. After all, political instability in Thailand has become a constant for the past two decades. Was Yingluck an inevitable victim of this unestable period? As seen in the street of Thailand, some will answer yes and others no. Noticeably, Yingluck Shinawatra faced fierce opposition, which applied to her experience in office made the female leader commit serious mistakes, either by omission or wrong decision. To sum up, endogenous and exogenous factors influenced her government. Nevertheless we might all agree that the judiciary coup lead this month proves that Yingluck lost the luck that once took her to power.
Tomás Vera Ziccardi.
* This work is physical and intellectual property of Mr. Tomás Vera Ziccardi. The rights of this work are reserved to TVZC® by express request of the Author.
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