Bad News for Ōsaka's Dragon

Bad News for Ōsaka's Dragon

Author: Tomás Vera Ziccardi.

When the figure of Hashimoto Tōru managed to consolidate itself nationwide, about two years ago, everybody predicted a prosperous future for who is known as the Ōsaka Dragon. Time showed a different reality. The year 2014 was one of political, electoral and social setbacks for Ōsaka's leader. After months of struggle in order to succeed his famous project for the unification of prefectural and municipal entities, rejection from Ōsaka's Legislature and further lack of support from the public, gave Mr. Hashimoto a total defeat. It was Hashimoto himself who admitted failure when recognizing the lack of social support.

Political setbacks were crystallized in the scarce support from major parties, both nationally and locally. Jimintō always had in mind that Hashimoto is a double-edged sword, ergo its relationship with the young leader strongly varied. Another important point in political terms has been the dismemberment of what once managed to be Japan’s third political force, Nippon Ishin no Kai (known in English as Japan Restoration Party). The breakup between Mr. Hashimoto and Ishihara Shintarō, mostly affected the first one, making him loose support from parliamentarians at Kokkai.

Finally it is worth noting failures at the decision-making level. This has not been a year in which the Ōsaka Dragon succeeded at making appropriate decisions. His interest in calling a snap election that allowed him to expand his power in the City and Prefecture of Ōsaka was demolished by poor social support.

Throughout this article these and other issues shall be addressed, seeking to expose the domino effect generated by Hashimoto's bad decisions. The vicious cycle of bad news neither seems endless nor pious, this has left Tōru against a fragile situation, mostly looking forward to the Diet elections planned for December. Undoubtedly 2014 was a year of setbacks for Mr. Hashimoto, in order to understand one of Japan’s most relevant political figures, this paper wills to evaluate the scope and implications of each of the most important events.

Mr. Hashimoto Tōru is the incumbent Ōsaka Mayor. Being one of the most relevant political figures of Japan, he had to go through a year of major setbacks.

Recalling the discussion in the work The Ōsaka Dragon, the back then Ōsaka Governor, Mr. Hashimoto Tōru, designed with his working team a bill for the creation of the Ōsaka Metropolitan Area. This project sought to create a bureaucratic-administrative structure similar to that one of Tōkyō-tō. A powerful Ōsaka Ishin no Kai, could thus extend its control through Kansai's central area. Hashimoto's interests for establishing such a structure, which affected Sakai, Ōsaka-shi, other political forces in the local assembly, the interests of the bureaucracy and the citizens' needs, were not meant to stop that easily. This led the Governor to further seek to achieve his ambitious plan. From the beginning, it lacked clearness in order to explain the public the benefits it might bring. On the other hand, a strong Ōsaka Ishin no Kai at the regional level raised the alarm of Tōkyō's political establishment. The plan was precocious; the electorate had more doubts than certainties, while the entire political spectrum turned against Tōru. Despite his efforts to approach Nagatachō and get support from the Abe Administration, the plan went further than what national leaders expected. Over time, Hashimoto lost the support of Jimintō and Kōmeitō, which resulted in the unilateral imposition of party line at the local level.

During the first quarter of the year a snap election was held regarding the control of Ōsaka's City executive branch. The main national parties did not submit candidates, highlighting their opposition towards the Hashimoto Administration. The election was a strategy from this administration in order to strengthen power and achieve the goal of creating a metropolitan area. Political opposition and social distrust decanted in an attendance of around 25% of eligible voters (the lower register in history). The election that crowned Hashimoto (the only relevant contestant compared to four other virtually unknown ones) exposed the lack of social interest for redesigning Ōsaka's legal & administrative system. For Tōru, the election threw a bittersweet result. Despite securing to be the only winner, the scarce social support ended up impacting on his main political project. Ōsaka Ishin no Kai now controlled both the prefectural and city governments, however it lost social support, at the same time that the other political parties exposed their lack of support towards the government. This cost was meant to be faced by Mr. Hashimoto, but also by his party.

The elections for Ōsaka Mayor held during March of the current year showed the distance between Ōsaka Ishin no Kai and the rest of the political spectrum. The billboard depicts a lonely Hashimoto due to the decision of major parties to not submit candidates because of their opposition towards Mr. Hashimoto's unilateral actions.

The domino effect soon took place: by midyear intraparty differences led to the breakup of Nippon Ishin no Kai (the party emerged as the third political force after national elections in late 2012). One of the most relevant parties in recent years, result of the alliance between conservative leader Ishihara Shintarō (former Tōkyō Governor) and the Ōsaka Dragon, dissolved because of the lack of consensus between two factions that had different styles and visions. The Ōsaka faction was always under Hashimoto’s control, and sought to consolidate the party from their base in Kansai. On the other hand, the Kantō faction, commanded by Mr. Ishihara, began to adopt a more distant position regarding the Kansai one, primarily due to differences with Mr. Hashimoto. Unilateral measures driven by the latter, his whims and the call for elections in advance were some of the reasons that allowed the Tōkyō faction to split apart from once and for all. For Hashimoto this was another major setback. His image at a national scale was strongly affected. Loyal to his style, Hashimoto quickly sought to reach agreements with other political forces, knowing that not doing such a thing would end up isolating him in Ōsaka, destroying the possibility to project to the East and consequently to the whole nation. Hence Tōru approached Kenji Eda, leader of Yui no Tō (Unity Party) a minority group of no more than 20 parliamentarians, in order to seal a possible political agreement. Of course this was done in order to not to lose political momentum and future capabilities, while at least, in some way, maintaining a nationwide image.

Nippon Ishin no Kai’s local branch also suffered the effects of the election. Despite controlling the Prefecture and City executives (Matsui-san and Hashimoto-san respectively), the party lost its majority in both assemblies. Without exerting force at the legislative level, Ōsaka Ishin no Kai has lost even more power in order to push forward legislation, such as the one referred to the special metropolitan region.

Further analysis shows that Ōsaka Ishin no Kai will need to form coalitions with other parties in order to approve legislation. Currently, the problem seems to be: who would want to form coalition with Hashimoto, since this implies getting involved with a political figure that has accumulated a negative image? Definitely, something like this could have political costs for other parties. It should be also taken into account that the advantage is now on the opposition's side, not on the ruling one. This shows the trend that it must be Hashimoto the one who makes concessions, not vice versa.

Fond memories! Mr. Hashimoto and Mr. Ishihara smile while shaking hands during an event of their party Nippon Ishin no Kai. Unfortunately, their alliance did not last long, affecting the base of what once was called to be Japan's third political force.

Crossing the thin line that separates the leader's problems from those of the party, it is understandable that bad news transcend both and directly affect third political forces. Non-traditional parties have constantly faced difficulties to survive in the complex Japanese political system. Having achieved an important victory two years ago, Nippon Ishin no Kai emerged as a possible third force with a view to consolidate over time. While being distant from the center-left spectrum, the party has repeatedly criticized the incumbent government (more linked to the center-right). This gave Japanese voters a new possibility, mostly because they could choose an option that was not part of the mainstream. On the other hand, the figure of Hashimoto, at least in the beginning, attracted several voters looking for a change of leadership. It should be stressed that Tōru is not part of the political establishment, he is an outsider with a background linked to media. In spite of what was mentioned before, the problem is that both the party and the leader have rapidly lost strength in almost every front. Hashimoto has the difficult task of rebuilding the party as a third political force. This is complex, especially if we consider the upcoming elections in December and the vicious cycle of political errors committed by Tōru. The situation recalls that of a dragon which ends up destroying everything due to its own weight and power. Hashimoto has made mistakes that are unforgivable for the systemic power, something that explains the lack of support they gave him. Thus, Mr. Hashimoto ended up destroying his own political capital. Apparently, the best option seems to be keeping a low profile regarding the next elections, hoping to obtain a much clearer post-electoral landscape. Thereafter he should act in accordance to the new socio-political scenario. Hashimoto should not forget that the major problems have been the mistakes committed this year, undoubtedly they have had high costs.

As for his personal actions, Mr. Hashimoto has glimpsed the loss of power at the national level after the breakup with Ishihara Shintarō. It should also be noted the loss of confidence from voters. Several Japanese wonder if perhaps Hashimoto would end up being one of those politicians who constantly changes from party and reshuffles alliances. Clearly, the Ōsaka Dragon pursues his own interests. As for his view it remains vital erecting a political figure with national projections. For such purpose he must strength power and redesign alliances with other actors.

There's always time for a new beginning: Mr. Hashimoto and Mr. Eda shake hands during an event of the recently launched Ishin no Tō. The party is co-leaded by both politicans. Would it have the same fate as Nippon Ishin no Kai or this time Hashimoto's commitment would be higher?

In September, the national platform of Ishin no Tō (Innovation Party), co-led by Eda Kenji and Hashimoto Tōru, was launched. The culmination of the alliance gave a final balance of 50 lawmakers in Kokkai. The party has a relevant position in the Lower House. Given its short history, its proposals are still unclear. It is early to analyze its possible scope as well as the social response. However, it is relevant to note that in recent months the party has made a major media campaign for the elections to the Diet hoped to be held by the end of this year.

Recently, Mayor Hashimoto has faced Zaitokukai (an extreme far right group) due to the activity they have been doing in the Kansai region, more specifically in Ōsaka. Such controversial group has a strong base of social support in this city. Their constant demonstrations have led to criticism towards the Hashimoto Administration due to its lack of response regarding such issues. The Mayor did not miss the opportunity and established an open debate with the main referent of the mentioned group. Undoubtedly, Hashimoto was highly favored. He was more focused, something that allowed him to obtain approval from various sectors of society that had previously been quite critical of his political positions. The debate was algid and at times it generated tension among those present. Two scenarios arose. On the one hand we have a moderate Hashimoto being critical of extremist groups. On the other one, we appreciate a politician who used the event to clean up his image and obtain attention from the moderate spectrum of Japanese society. Let's recall that these sectors have always been strong critics of Mr. Hashimoto, especially after the issue linked to his comments regarding “comfort women” and Japan's role in the Korean Peninsula during the first part of the XX Century. In other words, the appointment with Makoto Sakurai (leader of the extremist group) may have served Tōru as a momentum for the upcoming election, particularly referring to issues such as tolerance towards minorities, his position on “heito supichi”, respect towards diversity and discursive moderation.

Bad news for Ōsaka's Mayor: Ōsaka Ishin no Kai has also suffered the effects of Hashimoto's political mistakes. During the upcoming twelve months the party will have to improve in several fronts in order to fulfil its main goals.

Approaching the fourth trimester of the year, we appreciate that bad news continued arriving at the residence of Ōsaka's Mayor. In October Tōru received another tough setback: Ōsaka's Local Assembly voted against the government's project for the creation of an autonomous zone. As mentioned above, the opposition parties did not support the proposal introduced by Hashimoto. Considering that the political establishment itself turned its back on Tōru, he has now chosen another option. This measure that we could catalog as a final, unilateral and no-return solution involves the search of social support for calling a referendum. The measure is highly complex mostly because it does not give Hashimoto alternative escapes or new channels to renegotiate the issue. Two problems arise from the applicability of this controversial mechanism. On the one hand, before promoting it, the referendum needs approval from the Assembly. Given that it already voted against the project, it is difficult that the referendum receives the green light. The concessions to be made by Ishin no Tō's leader need to be really high, because the truth is that so far the opposition has not shown any sort of predisposition towards negotiation. From another point of view, the Ōsaka Dragon should reconsider whether the measure is appropriate: given the scarce social support received in the last elections, the referendum might not obtain the values needed in order to achieve social approval. Being a "final solution", if citizens express themselves in opposition, the project would be buried, drowning Mr. Hashimoto much deeper than what he might expect.

The elections planned for mid-December emerged as a possibility for Hashimoto. Despite further endeavor to promote unknown candidates, some party members from Ōsaka assure that Ishin no Tō could win some seats in the Lower House. Some time ago rumors rose regarding a possible candidacy from Hashimoto himself, however it was quickly abandoned. This candidacy would mean giving a step forward towards the national level, but at a second range. Hashimoto seems eager to continue building power from the local level, making the next move towards Kokkai would end up showing a total lack of legislative functions by the Ōsaka Dragon. It is also eloquent having in mind that Hashimoto's candidacy might produce a setback for his party, directly affecting its position for the upcoming elections in Ōsaka next year. The situation is even worse if we consider that Tōru would be abandoning public office once more. The second resignation in three years, jointly with an exercise of less than a year as Ōsaka's Mayor, would imply a total loss of confidence and commitment from the society that elected him. In conclusion, Hashimoto's candidacy to the Lower House of the Diet of Japan was completely abandoned due to the high costs it could bring in the near future. The cost-benefit equation resulted highly unfavorable for him and his party.

One of Japan's most influential political figures is going through a difficult moment. Hashimoto Tōru has received bad news during 2014. It would be relevant to appreciate his reaction towards the changing political scenario, mostly because this time Mr. Hashimoto and his party are disputing something more than a regular election.

Hashimoto Tōru remains an important figure in Japanese politics. As usual he continues generating mistrust and adhesions at the same time. Recently, he has poorly performed on several fronts. His power has been reduced both locally and nationally. The constant party breakdowns and alliances have shifted the social and electoral response regarding the Ōsaka Dragon. National elections of 2014 and local ones of 2015 will be relevant landmarks in order to determine the future evolution of Ōsaka's most important political figure. Currently, his actions and the response of other actors based thereon have placed him into a spiral of poor results that over time have continued developing bad news. Hashimoto appears to be going through an impasse, but he always manages to find a “last moment” way out. It will be a matter of observing whether this strategy will last longer. For example, regarding his interest in calling a referendum based on the project of creating a new administrative area in Ōsaka. This year might be characterized as one where his main projects and partnerships were rejected and dismembered. At times Hashimoto's image is affected, however he has managed to take advantage of certain circumstances, such as the debate with Mr. Sakurai. The future seems uncertain, however we should not dismiss the fact that Hashimoto is a clever leader. It will be relevant to observe his actions and response to the changing political scenario over the next 6-12 months. After all, this time he has much more to lose than to win, something that definitely calls for a higher level of acuity in a political system where mistakes carry a high price.

                                                                     Tomás Vera Ziccardi.

* This work is physical and intellectual property of Mr. Tomás Vera Ziccardi. All rights are reserved to TVZC® by express request of the Author.