jueves, 5 de diciembre de 2013
Will the Maldives disappear?
Will the Maldives disappear?
Author: Tomás Vera Ziccardi.
Located in the heart of the Indian Ocean, the Republic of Maldives is a sovereign nation unfamiliar to most of the people who inhabit this world. However, in recent years this nation has been the window to one of the problems that could end up seriously affecting virtually the entire world population. What makes Maldives an extremely important nation for the XXI Century? How it is possible that an independent state madeup of no more than half a million people becomes the prelude to future disasters of global proportions? To understand these issues it is first necessary to make a description of the nation, at the same time that we elaborate an analysis that addresses the problems which have recently affected Maldives. This will allow us to understand the reason why analysts have repeatedly asked if there are legitimate possibilities that this Asian nation disappears. Keeping track of this shaft question, we shall seek to respond the possibility that the Maldives disappears, and also an explanation as to why it has gone so far as to suggest the demise of a nation.
The nearest countries are Sri Lanka and India.
The Indian Ocean completely surrounds the Maldives. Being an archipelago of
more than 1,900 islands, from which less than a quarter of them are inhabited.
Its capital, Male, has about 100,000 inhabitants, over 25 % of all the
Maldivian population. The rest is distributed in more than 200 islands, with
some having a population of between 1,000 and 5,000. A total of 400,000
inhabitants make up the national population of the Maldives. Despite being a
recognized tourist destination, especially among American and European tourists
(now also among Chinese ones), few know that the Maldives is the country with
the lowest altitude in the world. This has led to the categorization of 'the
lowest country in the world'. Maldives lacks 'natural' mountains, not reaching
more than three meters, the highest peak in the nation. We say 'natural'
because as we shall see there are other mountains in the Maldives, which far from
having brought benefits to the topographical features of the nation, have
worsened its situation in social and natural terms. Keep in mind that 80 % of
the territory does not exceed five meters in height. Virtually the entire
territory is at sea level. This makes the Maldives, a nation that has less than
1,000 km2, an extremely vulnerable nation to global warming, since a slight
increase with regards to water levels in the Indian Ocean can infringe the
entire national territory.
From a paradisiac destination to an apocalyptic scenario, which are the causes that lay under the environmental vulnerability of Maldives?
We have previously mentioned an extremely
relevant aspect for this Asian nation. Tourism is Maldives main source of
income. This economic activity accounts for over 40 % of national GDP.
According to figures provided by the Ministry of Tourism of Maldives, more than
500,000 tourists visit the nation each year. This allows us to observe that the
annual number of tourists exceeds the total Maldivian population. Not only with
tourists come remittances in foreign currency, also come serious problems. This
allows us to reformulate the current paradigm which holds that the Maldives
will go ahead with tourism. Is tourism the solution or the real underlying
problem?
To Maldivian citizens access to education is
difficult. The top educational institutions such as universities are only for a
few. The inability to move from remote islands to the capital makes it
difficult for people in rural areas to have access to quality education. On the
other hand, the low level of infrastructure precludes the construction of
schools and universities in different islands, further worsening structural
problems that Maldives has in education. Structural problems bring to light the
high distance between the small elite that rule the nation from Male and the
rest of the population. No wonder that the Maldives has one of the highest Gini
coefficients in the world. We should also notice that its Human Development
Index level is medium. All this means that over the year’s people have digested
the concepts of the elite which argue that tourism is a huge benefit for the
nation. Maldivian citizens have become accustomed to accept tourism, including
all the evil that follows it. Tourism serves as the 'opium of the people', and
instead of being addressed as the problem, it is introduced as the solution. Of
course, the industry related to tourism has a strong link with the political
power and the military.
After tourism fishing accounts for the activity
that generates the higher income in Maldives. Its territorial position is
strategic for fishing, generating annual exports to nations like China, where recently
the demand for fish has increased. In recent years the exploitation of marine
resources has led to a crisis in the seabed around the islands. It is feared
that increased fishing without strict regulation leads to the destruction of
the nation's ecosystem, generating natural consequences as well as economic
ones.
There are two areas where we should deepen. On
one side we should focus on Maldives energy supplies. Due to its geographical
position, the Maldives must import fuel from other nations. The Asian nation
imports more than one quarter of its GDP on diesel. The costs of illuminating
the nation plus hospitals and schools energy supply are extremely high. Energy
dependence clearly increases the spiraling problems affecting Maldives.
Furthermore it should be noted that Maldives
has no water reserves. This leads to import millions of tons of water, not only
for consumption of its inhabitants, but also for the huge number of tourists
visiting the country annually. Sewage and water networks do not cover more than
40 % of the populated territory, being the capital the only exception where the
system is moderately acceptable. Meanwhile in remote islands such
infrastructure is non-existent.
Maldives insular condition isolates the nation
when it comes to getting rid of garbage and waste. Keep in mind that big
tourism chains and activities that emerge from them generate over 60% of waste
in Maldives. Several islands have seen how 'artificial' mountains of garbage
have increased in recent years. Ironically these 'artificial' mountains are the
only ones in Maldives. Successive governments have tended to adopt a policy of
relocation of large landfills to remote islands, which does not solve the waste
problem but makes it worse for the future.
Maldives is located in the so called Coral
Reefs. Unlike other insular nations, its foundations are supported on these
structures, rather than on volcanic stone or fertile soil. Nowadays the world
has seen how global warming has advanced at a high speed, although, in the
political agenda, little has been done in order to stop it. The reason why we
want to introduce the case of Maldives is because it serves as a window to the
future, a case that could show the panorama in which we would find us for not
taking serious measures against global warming. At the same time the
ineffectiveness of appropriate policies show irreversible damage in
geographical terms, as the case of the Maldives poses serious risks to national
integrity. In recent years, global warming has not only exponentially increased
the volume of water in the oceans, aggravating the situation of nations
situated at sea level as the Maldives, but also it has increased the level of
acidity in the oceans, destroying stocks of coral on which an enormous amount
of archipelagos worldwide maintain themselves. For the Maldives, this means an
even more serious problem than for other nations.
Maldives has a serious problems regarding waste disposal. In a nation where half a million tourist arrive every year, pollution is intended to increase, affecting national environment.
Due to global warming effects, water levels
have increased, jeopardizing the status of nations living on the sea level.
Going even further, climate change increased the annual rainfall in the Indian
Ocean region, which generates not only higher levels of annual rainfall, but
also more rain, storms and tsunamis per year. Forward-looking statements speak
of Maldives possible situation, which would lose about 23% of its territory by
the year 2100. Of course this would happen if water levels in the seas and
oceans around the world continue increasing. We could not only witness the
disappearance of a significant percentage of islands but also the inability to
relocate thousands of inhabitants.
Unlike the situation in other nations, in
Maldives, due to its topographical structure, a slight rise in sea levels translates
into serious floods, as it was experienced in recent years. Maldives not only
lacks the budget to counter these issues, it is also unable to implement a
similar plan to the ones British had for the Thames in order to prevent rising
tides resulting in floods. Setting concrete walls around nearly 2,000 islands
is virtually impossible, even more for a nation whose infrastructure is
extremely precarious. On the other hand, it is not certain where rising sea
levels will hit, thus protecting certain islands and others not seems not be
the right choice. At the same time we could point out that the protection of
the islands near the capital would lead to an even more difficult demographic
situation. The residents of remote islands may have fear of the lack of
protection and hence they would immediately seek for refuge in the capital. In
recent years there has been an increase on the intra-migratory flow to the
capital, leaving several islands uninhabited. Many of these islands have a
population of less than 1,000 inhabitants. On the other hand, the same could
happen in the capital; hence it is not an easy task to predict where the
disaster shall take place.
Despite the higher level of vulnerability due
to its geographical condition and the exponential risk to experience future
disasters due to global warming, Maldives should reconsider the extent of human
responsibility in the problems it traverses. We previously analyzed tourism and
the problems it creates. The piles of trash worsen the health situation in the
islands of Maldives. Furthermore, the seas predation due to the fishing boom
can complicate even further the environmental situation. The level of ocean
acidity, partly due to international pollution, but also by irresponsible
fishing, along with the tons of waste dumped into the sea that border the
nation, is another issue that harms the Maldives and also the future of its
inhabitants. Why measures are not taken in order to limit tourism, the waste
issue, fishing & hostelry industry and the energetic dependence? This is
clearly due to economic interests. Maldives was ruled for decades by an
authoritarian regime, disguised as a pseudo democracy. The judicial and
legislative branches of power have a strong link with the economic power that
controls tourism and fishing. Despite democratic progress since the '2000s,
groups of power used to perpetrate lobby practices have redoubled their efforts
in order to eliminate environmental issues from the political & electoral
debate. This added to the low level of formation that the average Maldivian
citizen has and the restrictions imposed over access to valuable information
regarding climate change, has shifted the focus of attention from voters and
citizens. Maldivians seem not so interested in the environmental problems its
nation is facing. Not only there is direct culpability and responsibility from
the population but also from the elite that rule the country, which in defense
of their economic interests and monopolist industries has sedated the people on
an issue that is considerably serious. For the past decades something has been
extremely clear: the Maldivian establishment is determined to achieve discredit
of the problems generated by the environment.
Contrary to popular belief that a man cannot
change things by himself, Mohamed Nasheed has worked most of his entire life
not only to change the environmental situation of his nation, but also to fight
concentrated power groups that prevent a change for the better of the Maldivian
people.
Nasheed completed his formation on maritime
studies in the United Kingdom. After that he returned to his nation, where he
was arrested for attacking, as a journalist, the government. In the early '90s
Nasheed began his political career looking forward to impose the environmental
theme at the core of social debate. During the years of political turmoil in
the '2000s he held public office, where his image grew enormously, especially
due to the great popularity generated by his innovative initiatives.
Unfortunately because of them he would end up in prison. Nasheed was for years
one of the most hated political leaders by the military that held control of
the Maldives for nearly two decades.
Due to the difficult socio-political situation
in Maldives, Nasheed had to face exile in Sri Lanka, where along with other
relevant Maldivian figures they would found the Maldivian Democratic Party.
After years of de facto governments, elected in fraudulent elections, Nasheed managed
to win the 2008 election with the support of more than half of the electorate.
After 20 years of dictatorship, Nasheed became the first democratically elected
president of Maldives. His policies represented the same political thought he
had throughout his life, innovation and long-term projection were the norm
during his years in office. In 2009 the President proposed to reverse the
national energy matrix to a supply based on wind and solar energy. It is
understandable that traditional groups of power quickly opposed to his
government. In terms of foreign affairs the government sought to implement certain
type of diplomacy where previously mentioned Maldivian problems became projected
to the international sphere. Presidential diplomacy was at its height, as
Nasheed himself took part of major international forums, the United Nations and
had a considerable presence in regions of great relevance such as the European
Union and the NAFTA.
We should note that his government not only
developed policies that sought to limit the amount of waste in Maldives, it
also intended to reformulate the energetic and water supply, both of vital
importance for the Asian nation. This clearly affected the economic interests
of the traditional power groups which for decades had articulated a system that
favored the import of diesel and water, while they never addressed the
environmental issue nor eliminated waste and rubbish pills. Nasheed himself
sought support from a huge amount of nations around the world, several of which
observed how during his tenure the environmental issue increased at an
international scale. In conclusion, the Nasheed government not only harmed the
interests of domestic sectors, it also affected external ones, by awakening the
need for change in terms of environmental regulation, something that several
nations seek to minimize or eliminate from the international agenda. No wonder
that throughout his mandate Nasheed suffered constant destabilization and coup
attempts. The media attacks plus military interference in political power and
judicial impediments were significant variables that hindered the exercise of
functions of the MDP.
President Mohamed Nasheed introduces his speech at the United Nations Plenary, where he endorsed the lack of policies in the international agenda directed to combat global warming.
Internationally recognized as one of the
leading exponents in the fight against climate change, Nasheed thwarted his
dream of changing the course of events not only in his own nation but also on
the entire world. Despite having directed his policies towards all axes that
create problems for Maldives, most of which we have described since the
beginning of the article, the military, the economic elite, political groups,
transnational economic power, main hostelry chains, corporations in charge of
tourism in the Maldives, international consumers of maritime products that saw
their interests affected by the legislation Nasheed created to preserve marine
life, nations that sought to silence his voice thinking that this would bury the issue of climate change and fuel
exporters ended up organizing a coup against him. Mohamed Nasheed, who came to
organize his first cabinet meeting underwater, seeking to raise awareness to
the world about the future of Maldives if serious action was not taken against
climate change, ended up renouncing forcibly due to social instability
generated in the streets of Male.
In the picture you can appreciate the historical Underwater Cabinet Meeting, where the recently eleceted government intended to rise concern regarding climate change and its effects in Maldives.
The Maldivian case is nothing more and nothing
less than the clear representation of what could happen to the rest of the
world if consistent policies are not taken. Climate change does not take a
break, it is unpredictable, being able of affecting anyone at any time.
Maldives counts with an obvious geographical vulnerability against the effects
arising from climate change, however, and as we have seen, the main problem
seems to have human responsibility. Maldivian citizens, from fishermen in
remote islands up to tourism business leaders have led to an even worse
environmental situation. In recent decades the amount of waste has increased,
furthermore this issue has not been properly addressed. As for inefficiently
regulated fishing, when measures were implemented to limit the destruction of
the natural habitat, the desire to extract more fish in order to satisfy the
international demand, economic groups behind the fishing industry fiercely
opposed, demonstrating their commitment to destroy and harm the environment.
The same as with fishing, the nation's energy matrix has the support of the
political elite, fuel importers and the judicial branch. These groups intend to
prevent a modification of the energetic matrix, opposing against the
implementation of a non polluting one. All this shows us the level of human
responsibility, not nature one, that lies behind the Maldivian case. The
immediate economic and commercial interests seem to outweigh concerns about working
for a better future for upcoming generations. Not only from the scientific
world dealing with climate change, pollution, disproportionate consumption of
non renewable fuels, increasing the level of water in the oceans and the
destruction of marine life, from the world of international politics, which is
what we are interested in, a not so bright future for Maldives arises. The
major problems are not only structural and require immediate action; they
should be discussed at the national and international level. Future
implications could end up making of the Maldives just a mere memory. Even
worse, if serious steps are not taken to reverse the situation in the Asian
nation, we could be facing the future that waits for all of us. Let us note
that the case of Maldives is not an isolated one. The people of this nation
located in the Indian Ocean live on planet earth, just like us. You must
understand that there is no Plan B, because there is no Planet B. Climate
change does not choose who to hit next. Maldives today, tomorrow it would be
another nation. We must realize that not working for change in Maldives would
also lead us to our future scenario, where the interests of the world's
political elite and transnational power would silence the problems behind climate
change, while damage will continue advancing, and even worse, they will be
irreparable.
Various Maldivian politicians have suggested
that it is still early to talk about the effects of climate change. It is
precisely that kind of attitude that hinders the solution. The fact of you not
being dead does not mean that you will not be. The symptoms are clear, Maldives
has enormous possibilities to experience the disappearance of much of its
territory, the loss of life due to floods & storms and the destruction of
vital infrastructure for the nation (roads, schools, hospitals, airports, etc).
Regarding the question 'Will the Maldives disappear?' Clearly, the scientific
evidence suggests that the Asian nation may disappear. No wonder why in the
past it has even been suggested from various political factions the possibility
of buying territory to other nations, hence producing a massive national
migration. If such decision takes place it would not only mean leaving behind
the territory of Maldives, it would also mean leaving behind the hope on the
fight against global warming. For us these kinds of issues are the ones that
corroborate what is suggested from the scientific world. Yes, the Maldives may
disappear in the future. A future that may be closer than what we expect. But
natural causes should not be the unique concern, innate to the environmental
problem, human ones should also be consider. Precisely these are the ones that
worsen the vicious circle of problems which Maldives is experimenting and that
maybe you could soon be experiencing.
Tomás Vera Ziccardi.
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